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Predicting The Races…

by on September 16, 2008

Dr. James Campbell, chairman of the University at Buffalo’s political science department, weighs in on the race for the 26th district in an interview with the Tonawanda News:

Q: How do you think Kryzan will fare against Republican Christopher Lee in the general election?

A: I think it’s going to be a close race. This is a district that, in the past at least, has tilted toward Republican candidates. Given that, Lee has a head start with Democrats coming out of a divisive primary. Kryzan won the support of her party, but she got less than 50 percent of the vote so she’s got some work to do. You’d like to come out of your own party’s nomination with at least 60 percent of the party pulling the lever for you.

In my view, Chris Lee enters the race with the most advantages. Adding to his chances is the fact that the excitement generated by John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate has trickled down to congressional races, according to Gallup. Chris Lee already had the advantage in the Republican-leaning district, so Palin factor only increases his chances.

Dr. James Campbell also has a prediction for the presidential race:

Q: On to the presidential election, how do you think things will shake out between Barack Obama and John McCain?

A: The forecasting model I’ve been using since 1992 to predict the election is based on analysis of polls taken at different times during the campaign, trying to read them in historical context and how they’ve correlated with the vote since 1948. Mainly it uses the post-convention, early September Gallup poll and the second-quarter growth numbers for the economy. Together, those things provide a pretty good chance that McCain will get between 52 and 53 percent of the two-party popular vote.

Based on the state of the races, and the movement in national and state polls, I think this is a very good prediction. 


From → Campaign 2008

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